An Empirical Assessment of the Relationship Between Jail Population Size and County-level Crime Rates in Central Pennsylvania

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States in March of 2020, many correctional institutions nationally, and in Pennsylvania specifically, have reduced the size of their correctional populations by releasing non-violent offenders. Using official data, the purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between county-level jail population sizes and county-level crime rates, reported in the Uniform Crime Report (UCR), in Central Pennsylvania. Policy implications based on findings are discussed within.