A Preliminary Framework for Modeling Human Migration Flows Impacted by Climate Change–Induced State Carrying Capacity Changes

This paper develops a preliminary framework for modeling human migration flows where climate change (mean annual temperature) impacts state carrying capacity and movement is constrained by finite migration rates. Experimentation with model parameters indicates a potentially catastrophic inability of human populations to adapt quickly enough to changing carrying capacities as climate change stresses existing population regions such as the Sahara and the Sahel.