Analyzing the Impact of COVID-19 Jail Downsizing on County-level Crime Rates in Central PA

Downsizing correctional facilities has started to gain popularity due to COVID-19, overcrowding, and underfunding. Advocates argue that decarcerating non-violent offenders allows for housing more violent offenders. Funds saved from downsizing can be reallocated toward better resources for our correctional population. Opponents believe downsizing could increase crime, threatening the safety of our communities. Using official data, this study examines the effects of jail downsizing on county-level crime rates, as reported in the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports.