Mia Collis
I expect that the variation in levels of turnout is caused by the saliency of the topic of abortion, especially in states where the status quo of abortion policy could change with the election. I expect to observe this relationship because the Dobbs decision has increased the urgency of voting at the state level to protect or restrict abortion access. States where the governorship may flip or an abortion ballot initiative is present make abortion more salient than elections where the status quo is not threatened, boosting turnout.